Note: The raw data from December 14, 2020 can be downloaded here.

Rikunert and Koen Van den Heuvel both previously demonstrated there is a correlation between alcohol by volume (ABV) and average rating/score (on Untappd and/or BeerAdvocate). Curious to see if this was true for New England IPA (NEIPA), I transcribed every Tree House, Trillium, Other Half, and Monkish IPA on BeerAdvocate into Excel. After removing incomplete samples, I analyzed the remaining 1,570 IPAs using Excel:

% | Combined(1,570) | Tree House(259) | Trillium(224) | Other Half(719) | Monkish(368) |

Mean | 8.04 | 7.76 | 8.09 | 8.01 | 8.28 |

Standard Deviation | 1.16 | 0.66 | 1.19 | 1.30 | 1.06 |

Mean – Standard Deviation | 6.89 | 7.10 | 6.90 | 6.71 | 7.22 |

Mean + Standard Deviation | 9.20 | 8.42 | 9.28 | 9.32 | 9.33 |

First Quartile (Q1) | 7.30 | 7.25 | 7.20 | 7.20 | 8.00 |

Second Quartile (Q2) | 8.10 | 7.90 | 8.00 | 8.00 | 8.30 |

Third Quartile (Q3) | 8.50 | 8.20 | 8.60 | 8.50 | 8.60 |

Fourth Quartile (Q4) | 13.00 | 9.80 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 |

Interquartile Range (IQR) | 1.20 | 0.95 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 0.60 |

Lower Limit | 5.50 | 5.83 | 5.10 | 5.25 | 7.10 |

Upper Limit | 10.30 | 9.63 | 10.70 | 10.45 | 9.50 |

Lowest | 3.30 | 4.10 | 3.30 | 4.00 | 5.00 |

Highest | 13.00 | 9.80 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 12.00 |

Using the combined data set, I calculated the normal distribution and graphed the data (see the figure above). Note:

- Solid blue line = normal distribution of ABV %
- Solid dark green line = mean
- Dashed dark green lines = standard deviations
- Solid red lines = lower/upper range limit
- Solid red area = outliers
- Dashed light green lines = Brewers Association (BA) Style Guideline ABV % for Juicy/Hazy India Pale Ale and Juicy/Hazy Imperial/Double India Pale Ale
- Solid light green lines = mean for beers within Brewers Association Style Guidelines

Furthermore, I fitted the data sets to a linear regression analysis and calculated the coefficient of determination (R^{2}) to determine how closely the model fits the data. The R^{2} results were:

- Combined = 0.0718
- Tree House= 0.0047
- Trillium = 0.00007
- Other Half = 0.0005
- Monish = 0.0004

Based on the low R^{2} values, there is a very weak correlation between ABV and average rating/score for these 1,570 IPAs. In other words, higher NEIPA ABV does not produce higher rating/scores.

But the analyses above do suggest a good target for NEIPA ABV is between 6.89 and 9.20%. This range includes the overall mean (8.04%), BA NEIPA mean (6.94%) and BA NEDIPA mean (8.57%) and is bound by one standard deviation above and below the overall mean.

## One Response

Thanks for charting this all out. Personally I like NEIPA between 7.5.-8.0.